At the end of 2001, guar gum prices were at their lowest levels in over ten years. This was due not just because of good rainfall in the guar growing areas of Pakistan and India in the previous three years, but also because of weak international demand.
However, the monsoon rains in some of the guar growing areas in July and August 2002 have been extremely weak and next year's crop is expected to be a disaster.
In Pakistan, the rains so far have been moderate in the central Punjab province, which accounts for 75% of Pakistan's crop. However, it has not rained at all in the southeastern Sind province, which borders Rajasthan in India and accounts for 25% of Pakistan's crop. More importantly, the rainfall in India's Rajasthan province has also been very poor. Therefore, although the crop next year in Pakistan will not be a complete disaster, prices have risen substantially based on reports that the crop in India will be much smaller than usual.

Estimates for next year's guar crop size in Pakistan are as follows:

Punjab           800,000 bags
Sind              100000-200,000 bags
Carryover       300,000 bags
Total             1,200,000-1,300,000 bags

This would result in approximately 30,000 MT of guar gum available for the next 18 months. This is approximately 75% of Pakistan's normal crop size, but with the bullish market in India, a major portion of this will be held by traders and farmers and is unlikely to be released to the factories.